Growth in energy demand is accelerating despite progress on energy efficiency
Global energy demand grew by 2% in 2017 after two years of low growth. An increase in energy-using activities across many countries, regions and sectors outweighed ongoing progress on energy efficiency. Global energy intensity fell by 1.7% in 2017, the smallest annual improvement this decade.
However, demand would be much higher if not for progress on energy efficiency. Since 2000, improvements in energy efficiency in the world’s major economies offset more than one-third of the increase in energy-using activities. Most of these savings were achieved in the industry and buildings sectors. Globally, efficiency gains since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use in 2017.
Energy efficiency alone can deliver substantial economic, environmental and social benefits
The potential for enhancing energy efficiency is clearly demonstrated by the Efficient World Scenario (EWS) developed by the IEA World Energy Outlook. This scenario shows what would result if all available energy efficiency measures were implemented between now and 2040. All these measures are cost-effective, based on energy saving alone, and use technologies that are readily available today.
The EWS could result in lower emissions in 2040 compared with today, despite a doubling in the size of global economy. While global gross domestic product (GDP) could double by 2040, the EWS shows the potential for efficiency alone to limit the increase in primary energy demand to levels only marginally higher than those today. This would result in a peak in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions before 2020, which would subsequently fall by 12% in 2040 compared with today. Energy efficiency could provide more than 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in line with the Paris Agreement, a task made all the more urgent considering the growth in emissions in 2017 and the rapid decarbonisation required to limit the impacts of climate change. Energy efficiency, combined with renewable energy and other measures, is therefore indispensable to achieving global climate targets.
The EWS would also help to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and create multiple benefits for economies, households and the environment. The annual rate of global energy intensity improvement will exceed 3%, well above the 2030 energy efficiency target (SDG Target 7.3). Efficiency gains will also reduce coal, oil and gas imports, enhancing energy security. For example, the joint fossil fuel import bill of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) and India in 2040 could fall by nearly USD 500 billion (United States dollars). Families could benefit from over USD 550 billion in avoided energy spending in their cars and homes. The EWS would also cut key air pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter by one third compared with today. In particular, more efficient cooking could help reduce premature deaths from household air pollution by almost 1 million per year in 2040.
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